<![CDATA[Lekker Insights]]>https://www.lekkercapital.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XYFt!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4173b304-3812-4565-a23f-b8b3aa8496fb_1280x1280.pngLekker Insightshttps://www.lekkercapital.comSubstackSun, 23 Aug 2026 00:17:25 GMT<![CDATA[Hiding in Plain Sight]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/hiding-in-plain-sighthttps://www.lekkercapital.com/p/hiding-in-plain-sightTue, 18 Aug 2026 15:04:16 GMTIn lieu of this week’s Scouting the Tape, we wanted to provide a more detailed piece on an important opportunity. This write up is a deep-dive on an area we would probably categorize as the most attractive long setup across all markets today. This piece runs through the following.

  1. Summary

  2. Key investment highlights

  3. Preferred expressions

  4. Risks

Summary

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #29 - Aug 15, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-29-aug-15-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-29-aug-15-2026Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:39:23 GMTI hope everyone is having a nice summer and has some time off planned between now and Labor Day. It’s a bit of a weird schedule this year with Labor Day falling on the last possible day (September 7th). Next week is light on the data and then we get Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech to end the month the following week. These low volatility and low trading volume periods are perfect for recharging the batteries. They are a time to refine and strengthen long-term views and less so on the trading front.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Economic update.

  2. FX update.

  3. PGM idea.

  4. Equity idea.

  5. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Economic update.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #28 - Aug 9, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-28-aug-9-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-28-aug-9-2026Sun, 09 Aug 2026 08:53:52 GMTThe not so quiet, quiet summer continues as the VIX closed the week with a 14 handle and the S&P 500 saw new closing highs. Enjoy these last few weeks of calm ahead of the fall while they last.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Money printing and debasement.

  2. Peak Growth.

  3. Bitcoin.

  4. US Dollar.

  5. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Money printing and debasement.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 7, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-7https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-7Sun, 09 Aug 2026 08:17:54 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 7, 2026 - Lekker Insight
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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #27 - August 1, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-27-august-1-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-27-august-1-2026Sat, 01 Aug 2026 12:04:08 GMTWhat a memorable week in markets, capping off a memorable month. If someone told you everything that was going to happen during July and when, and then tell you the VIX was going to print 15.99 to close the month, I sure wouldn’t have believed it. But here we are. Despite the whipsawing markets, I don’t actually think much has changed from the trajectory we’ve been writing about. This administration and environment is doing their very best to throw the kitchen sink of distractions at market participants. It’s a time to stay patient, grounded in your process and skeptical.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Market update call replay.

  2. Run-rate hyperscaler financial profile.

  3. SpaceX.

  4. Situational Awareness.

  5. FOMC thoughts.

  6. Next week.

  7. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Market update call replay.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - July 31, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-july-31https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-july-31Sat, 01 Aug 2026 02:20:01 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - July 31, 2026 - Lekker Insights
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]]><![CDATA[July 2026 - Market Update Call]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/july-2026-market-update-callhttps://www.lekkercapital.com/p/july-2026-market-update-callTue, 28 Jul 2026 16:08:00 GMT

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #26 - July 26, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-26-july-26-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-26-july-26-2026Sun, 26 Jul 2026 15:17:56 GMTMarkets continue to be extremely rotational and choppy as volatility suppression remains the name of the game. Equities are weak and there isn’t a single major US index trading above its 20 day moving average. If we compare this price action to other recent distributive topping patterns, the rotational chop can last for weeks to months as policymakers do everything possible to kick the can and control things as best they can.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Next week’s market update call.

  2. BTC update.

  3. Volatility and options dynamics.

  4. Russia and Ukraine.

  5. Hurricane season.

  6. Kick them while they’re down.

  7. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Next week’s market update call.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #25 - July 18, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-25-july-18-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-25-july-18-2026Sat, 18 Jul 2026 12:02:26 GMTIf you haven’t yet had the chance to read it, check out our thought piece from yesterday. We go into detail on a few ideas we’ve been discussing lately and try to tie it all together with a few actionable recommendations.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. The downside inflation surprise.

  2. Remember peak growth and inflation?

  3. Hyperscaler financing supply.

  4. Asset allocation thoughts.

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The downside inflation surprise.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - July 17, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-july-17https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-july-17Fri, 17 Jul 2026 15:51:47 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - July 17, 2026 - Lekker Insights
4.43MB ∙ PDF file
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]]><![CDATA[The Dog Days of Summer]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/the-dog-days-of-summerhttps://www.lekkercapital.com/p/the-dog-days-of-summerFri, 17 Jul 2026 11:51:47 GMTWe will be hosting our first interactive market update Zoom call for subscribers on Tuesday, July 28th at 10:30am EST. Please put a hold on your calendar for this time and be on the look out for details that will be sent out in advance.

We have been writing about this trade idea in the chat but wanted to elaborate on it in detail. Despite all of the midterm seasonality talks to start the year, 2026 has played out far from the typical and expected. With midterms now just a few months away, we see a number of important trends converging across markets. This piece breaks down what those are in greater detail, when they will matter and what to do about them.

The following report lays out:

  1. Summary.

  2. Valuations.

  3. Market internals.

  4. Supply problem.

  5. Fed dynamics, the fix and how to play.

  6. Timeline and why now.

  7. What this isn’t.

Summary.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #24 - July 11, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-24-july-11-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-24-july-11-2026Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:12:45 GMTWe didn’t record a Forward Guidance episode this week due to some scheduling challenges but should be back next week. While this week was a bit slow on the data front, things start to pick back up in the coming weeks with inflation data and Warsh’s testimony next before the end of month FOMC and BOJ meetings. Given the underlying liquidity conditions, I would continue to expect a choppy environment.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. The inflation forecast that will guide the Fed.

  2. The state of the labor market.

  3. FOMC minutes recap.

  4. Warsh’s task forces.

  5. Dissecting the Nasdaq.

  6. Asset allocation thoughts.

Lekker Insights is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The inflation forecast that will guide the Fed.

  1. I laid out my detailed views on go forward inflation in our recent Peak Hawkishness post.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #23 - July 3, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-23-july-3-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-23-july-3-2026Fri, 03 Jul 2026 16:25:00 GMTThank you to everyone who has signed up in the first two weeks of our official launch. We are excited about the growth in the community and look forward to adding value to your investment processes. Don’t forget we have a referral and leaderboard program where you can score free subscriptions by recommending Lekker Insights to your friends and colleagues. Thank you!

Another choppy week in markets with a lot of rotational activity under the hood of the equity indices. Despite the surface appearing relatively stable, we are seeing a number of turning points forming across asset classes and data areas we have been following. We believe it is time to sit up in your chair and pay attention. There are a plethora of opportunities we will be looking to take advantage of in the coming weeks so don’t let the summer doldrums lull you into thinking otherwise.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Historic move in gold.

  2. MSTR update.

  3. BIS annual economic report.

  4. First signs of potential BOJ intervention.

  5. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Historic move in gold.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - July 3, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-july-3https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-july-3Fri, 03 Jul 2026 16:08:53 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - July 3, 2026 - Lekker Insights
2.72MB ∙ PDF file
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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #22 - June 27, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-22-june-27-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-22-june-27-2026Sat, 27 Jun 2026 13:09:28 GMTThere are only 3 days left to lock in the Founding Member Special, -25% off your annual subscription. After June 30th pricing will revert to the standard go-forward rate. We are excited about our plans to keep leveling up this space. Thank you!

Click to receive -25% off subscription

Finally some two-way action in markets to liven things up. It doesn’t feel like it but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are trading back to early May levels despite the tech mania. We’ve been writing for awhile now about the problems plaguing the Mag7 and it remains the worst performing group. If you missed our thought piece from earlier in the week, give it a read below - it’s aging well thus far.

Updates to SOFR long.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - June 26, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-june-26https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-june-26Fri, 26 Jun 2026 14:11:26 GMTThere are only a few days left to secure your founding member subscription special. After June 30th, the 25% discount will expire and pricing will revert to the normal rate. Thank you to everyone who has joined the community already - it’s been cool to see this space grow.

Sign up now to receive 25% off

As mentioned last week, these chartbooks will remain free, but access to our weekly Scouting the Tape reports, interactive market update calls, thematic research, chat and Q&A will be reserved for members only.

Forward Guidance Chartbook - June 26, 2026 - Lekker Insights
3.81MB ∙ PDF file
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]]><![CDATA[The Case for Peak Hawkishness]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/the-case-for-peak-hawkishnesshttps://www.lekkercapital.com/p/the-case-for-peak-hawkishnessTue, 23 Jun 2026 10:22:52 GMTOver the last few months I have written a lot about rates and SOFR in the weekly Scouting the Tape reports and spoken about the changes coming to the Fed on our Forward Guidance podcasts. I figured it might help to aggregate the main ideas here to make it more easily digestible and summarize the trade thesis. It’s one thing to have a view, it’s another to be right and it’s even more challenging to make money. The first two are nice, but we’re here to do the latter.

This article dives into:

  1. Summary and trade expression

  2. Iran war impacts and inflation

  3. What the Fed should do

  4. General economic outlook

  5. Market and technical factors

As a friendly reminder, there is just one week left to secure your Founding Member Special which gets you 25% off the annual cost of subscription. After June 30th, pricing will increase to the standard go-forward rate.

Join today - 25% off annual subscription

Thank you to everyone who has joined thus far. I feel grateful and lucky to be a part of this great community.

Summary and trade expression

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape - June 19, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-june-19-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-june-19-2026Fri, 19 Jun 2026 14:48:24 GMTIf you missed the subscriber update we sent out earlier this week, please have a read here. Take advantage of our founding member special through the end of June that locks in a 25% discount on your annual subscription.

Founding Member Special - 25% Off

We also work with a number of institutional clients so if that’s the seat you’re reading from and are looking for more bespoke research or consulting, please reach out.

Despite how bad of a deal Trump took from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, I think everyone is experiencing a collective sigh of relief that the charade is over (until after midterms). There also happens to be a lot going on in this market outside of that so it’s helpful to remove a big distraction / idiosyncratic noise. Let’s jump in.

FOMC thoughts.

  1. So much about this Fed meeting were weird to me. For starters, the timing of the hawkish pivot - why do it now after inflation has peaked? This is another example of them viewing things through a rearview mirror. Warsh is actually correct to question the data they are using because any half decent forecasts would have made them well aware of the inflation spike that was coming back in their March and April meetings and in the same vein, would make them aware at this meeting that inflation is heading back down.

    Image

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - June 19, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-june-19https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-june-19Fri, 19 Jun 2026 14:06:24 GMTWe sent out a subscriber update earlier this week that details some of the changes coming to Lekker Insights - please have a read here.

We are running a founding member subscription special until June 30th so early followers can secure a 25% discount. We appreciate everyone who has already signed up - your support means a lot!

Sign up now to receive 25% off

These chartbooks will remain free, but if you want access to our weekly Scouting the Tape reports, interactive market update calls, thematic research, chat and Q&A, we’d love to have you onboard.

Forward Guidance Chartbook - June 19, 2026 - Lekker Insights
6.63MB ∙ PDF file
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]]><![CDATA[Leveling Up Lekker Insights]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/leveling-up-lekker-insightshttps://www.lekkercapital.com/p/leveling-up-lekker-insightsTue, 16 Jun 2026 14:21:01 GMTI started posting here more regularly as a way to think out loud about markets, test theses, share analysis I use to manage capital and contribute to the fintwit ecosystem. I appreciate everyone who has joined our community and contributed in some form or fashion.

Moving Lekker Insights to a paid subscription model allows me to go deeper on ideas, share more analysis and provide more of my time and access. It will also help us build the best community of engaged participants and create a more fruitful environment for everyone involved, facilitating both collaboration and debate. It’s one thing to read a trade idea or investment thesis, but it’s another to be able to stress test it, ask questions and contemplate structure/execution to truly learn, understand and action it.

In a world of mass AI and technological adoption, I believe there will be an increasingly necessary role for human connection and communities. Lekker will solve that, serving as a go-to hub to escape the clutter and madness of social media. How you filter the noise, curate ideas and who you surround yourself with will become even more important.

As a member of this community you will have insights into my investment process, portfolio positioning and trading strategies in as real-time as possible. Here’s what that looks like in practice.

SIGN UP TODAY - FOUNDING MEMBER SPECIAL

Paid subscribers will receive:

  1. Scouting the Tape delivered weekly, most weeks (~40-50 issues per year)

  2. Interactive market update calls held every 1-2 months (~5-10 calls per year)

  3. Deep-dive and thematic research (~5-10 reports per year)

  4. Live chat and Q&A

  5. Annual Lekker Capital meetup (TBD, in ideation phase)

I plan to continue to take a quality over quantity approach to ensure I am delivering actionable ideas and relevant conviction. The above gives you a sense of what I expect to deliver from the jump, but this space will be improving and expanding over time.

Free subscribers will continue to receive our Forward Guidance podcast chartbooks.

Founding member pricing for those who got here early.

If you’ve been a part of this community from the beginning (or close to it), I want that to mean something. For the next two weeks, I’m offering founding member pricing at 25% off / $300 per year. After the founding member window closes on June 30th, pricing moves to the standard rate of $400 per year.

The work you receive from me will be the result of thousands of hours of my time and energy. If over the course of a year a single idea or trade helps you generate 10% on a $4,000 position, the subscription has paid for itself.

SIGN UP TODAY FOR 25% OFF

One last thing.

If you’ve followed me for any amount of time you have probably been able to tell that I absolutely love markets, geopolitics and current events. That passion led me to investing and the understanding that the efficient and free allocation of capital is essential to a strong economy and society as a whole. It’s meaningful to me.

I also love working with people, learning from others, gaining new perspectives and lending a helping hand where I can. I have been sharing my research and ideas across Twitter/X and various platforms for free for a number of years and I am better for it. I have had a lot of great people and mentors that I’m grateful I’ve been able to learn from over the years and I believe giving back where possible is what you do. We’ve all had help along the way - that’s what life is all about.

If you’re someone who’s seriously interested and an active follower but unable to commit to the annual subscription required to be a member, reach out and I’ll see what I can do. We also have a referral program that can provide free access to a subscription after sharing it with others.

I hope you’ll come along.

Thank you for your continued support and participation. I promise this will be an informative, fun and rewarding community to be a part of.

Lekker Insights is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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