<![CDATA[Lekker Insights]]>https://www.lekkercapital.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XYFt!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4173b304-3812-4565-a23f-b8b3aa8496fb_1280x1280.pngLekker Insightshttps://www.lekkercapital.comSubstackMon, 19 Oct 2026 07:05:07 GMT<![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #37 - Oct 17, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-37-oct-17-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-37-oct-17-2026Sat, 17 Oct 2026 12:28:32 GMTOver the last few weeks we’ve been discussing our expectation for increasing action in the market. This week sure did not disappoint. It was a very active trading week and one of the most busy ones in the chat in quite some time. Being a macro focused trader and investor, it’s fun for us when the macro matters. There will be some time in the not too distant future where it doesn’t matter again for a stretch of time, but for now we make the most of the opportunities at hand.

Felix and I caught up for another Forward Guidance episode this week. We covered a lot of ground and did our best to touch on everything going on this week.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Fed speak and inflation data.

  2. SOFR spreads.

  3. The C word.

  4. The dollar.

  5. Hurricane Isaias.

  6. War.

  7. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Fed speak and inflation data.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance - Oct 16, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-oct-16-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-oct-16-2026Fri, 16 Oct 2026 19:23:51 GMT

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #36 - Oct 9, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-36-oct-9-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-36-oct-9-2026Fri, 09 Oct 2026 17:23:47 GMT25 days until midterms and you can feel things heating up in both politics and markets. Market intervention continues from the administration as they seek to keep things supported through November and into Anthropic’s coming IPO. Meanwhile the pressures continue building beneath the surface as inflation data remains sticky and geopolitical escalations are not slowing. We think patience in these markets will bode well, but we also find ourselves increasing activity from the last few weeks. I expect volatility to continue to slowly trend higher into coming months with lots of chop.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Midterms.

  2. Taking stock.

  3. Higher education follow up.

  4. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Midterms.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance - Oct 2, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-oct-2-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-oct-2-2026Fri, 09 Oct 2026 17:22:56 GMT

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #35 - Sept 30, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-35-sept-30-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-35-sept-30-2026Wed, 30 Sep 2026 17:14:31 GMTIt appears to be one of those moments in time where I have a lot to write about, including a number of timelier topics, so I wanted to get this piece out earlier than usual. With midterm elections in the US now just a month away, there is an increasing number of cross-currents in the market and the added mix of politics into the discussion only increases both the emotion and noise. I imagine that continues and likely picks up steam from here. It’s as good of a time as ever to try to adjust your news and informational intake to as high-signal as possible and keep an open and questioning mindset to everything you read and hear.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. “These the red Octobers”.

  2. Month end charts.

  3. Deal or no deal.

  4. Volatility divergence.

  5. Breadth and concentration.

  6. Pair trade idea.

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“These the red Octobers”.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #34 - Sept 26, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-34-sept-26-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-34-sept-26-2026Sat, 26 Sep 2026 13:20:01 GMTThis coming week marks the start of the 4th quarter and final stretch of the 2026 calendar year. This week we published another long-form thought piece examining the structural trends behind the immigration, demographics, the labor market and wages. We believe these forces are important to understand in order to get the investment landscape correct. We conclude the piece with a few theme specific investment ideas.

Over the coming weeks and months we plan to release a few more write ups that further detail how we think about this economic regime and the asset classes we think should be paid attention to.

In this week’s podcast we brought on DCP, a long-time rates trader who spent decades trading in the Chicago pits. Given the commotion and rising volatility across the bond market, we thought it would be a good idea to chat with someone who’s been in these markets for longer than Felix and I have been alive. It was a great conversation.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Economic and Fed update.

  2. Oil update.

  3. Bond yields.

  4. SpaceX.

  5. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Economic and Fed update.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - Sept 25, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-sept-25https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-sept-25Sat, 26 Sep 2026 11:19:32 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - Sept 25, 2026 - Lekker Insight
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]]><![CDATA[The Secular Inflation Series: Immigration and Labor Force]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/the-secular-inflation-series-immigrationhttps://www.lekkercapital.com/p/the-secular-inflation-series-immigrationThu, 24 Sep 2026 19:07:22 GMTWe have a number of big picture thought piece ideas in the works and have found a common thread that links many of them together - secular inflation. Whether the topic is the current fiscal trajectory, bond market instability, labor market, housing cycle or the price of oil, many of the obstacles facing the American economy have to do with supply-side capacity at the moment political systems globally have committed to running demand hot. Inflation is more of a structural phenomenon than cyclical. The forces producing it operate over years, not quarters or months, and are already largely locked in.

The initial organizational structure and expected thought pieces are below.

  1. The Secular Inflation Series: Immigration and Labor Force

  2. The Secular Inflation Series: Hard Asset Protection

  3. The Secular Inflation Series: Housing Market

Our recent long-form piece on oil, Hiding in Plain Sight, published in August could be included in this series as well. It is a commodity expression of the same thesis where constrained supply meets policy-supported demand.

Each of these reports will include analysis and predictions around the overarching themes that will be with us for years. They will all also include the application of those macro views into investable ideas, because what’s the point in being right about financial market speculation if you aren’t making money off it.

This report covers:

  1. Summary.

  2. Immigration.

  3. Demographics.

  4. Labor Force.

  5. Wages.

  6. Investable idea.

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Summary.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #33 - Sept 19, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-33-sept-19-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-33-sept-19-2026Sat, 19 Sep 2026 14:48:19 GMTAnother Fed meeting has come and gone. It appears sentiment towards Warsh has relaxed a bit after this recent performance with many saying he has taken feedback and improved. I think it’s good to be in observer mode as much as possible with markets and current events because eventually there will be a time where you can use those observed sentiment shifts to your advantage. The difficult part is that you never know when that time will be exactly as it is often spontaneous intuition-driven and it’s also difficult to remain in observer mode forever if you’re active in the markets because you’re forced to take a view and build conviction in what you think is truth.

Vincent Deluard joined us for this week’s Forward Guidance round up. I really enjoyed it and took a lot away from it myself so of course I am going to recommend it to others. I was jotting notes throughout the discussion as it spurred a number of ideas and research topics for me. I hope you all find it as fun and productive as I did.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. FOMC reaction.

  2. What is the bond market saying?

  3. Effective Altruism.

  4. Asset allocation thoughts.

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FOMC reaction.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - Sept 18, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-sept-18https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-sept-18Fri, 18 Sep 2026 18:05:48 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - Sept 18, 2026 - Lekker Insight
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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - Sept 11, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-sept-11https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-sept-11Sat, 12 Sep 2026 15:42:40 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - Sept 11, 2026 - Lekker Insight
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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #32 - Sept 12, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-32-sept-12-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-32-sept-12-2026Sat, 12 Sep 2026 15:34:50 GMTIt’s unfortunate that it often takes such tragedy and loss to bring people together. One of my favorite books of all time, Peter Atwater’s The Confidence Map, teaches us why that is. Crises trigger a sudden collapse in confidence that strips away individual differences and aligns people around collective survival. They create an environment of shared vulnerability, band people together behind a collective goal and eliminate non-essential disputes with a focus on stabilization, mutual protection and “us” rather than “me”. Some of the world’s most beautiful moments, best ideas, greatest inventions and prominent societal turning points are born out of crisis. History tells us they are a necessary evil. Reading Peter’s book has had a large impact on all facets of my life and psychology - it is a must read.

When I lived in New York, every 9/11 anniversary I started my day with a morning run to the One World Trade Center. Despite not growing up there and only watching the scenes from afar on a grade school television, those mornings were a special time to slow down, reflect, appreciate the little things and remember how precious life is. On this year’s 25th anniversary, the goal is 1,000,000 good deeds to honor the lives lost and make it a day of uniting.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Stretching the rubber band.

  2. Europe hiking into an energy shock.

  3. What’s popping the bubble in higher education?

  4. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Stretching the rubber band.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #31 - Sept 7, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-31-sept-7-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-31-sept-7-2026Mon, 07 Sep 2026 13:59:05 GMTI don’t know about you guys but I am ready to take on the fall. I feel recharged and plugged into the flow of markets, but also a little fat, happy and refreshed after some time away from my normal routine. I am expecting the post-Labor Day sprint to the year-end holidays to happen in a flash like it usually does and with plenty of excitement along the way. Let’s be ready for anything and make the most of it.

Regularly scheduled programming is resuming with our weekly reports now that everyone is back in the saddle. We do have a number of work trips and conferences between now and year end. I will be relaying those dates and locations in the coming weeks in case anyone wants to meet.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. September FOMC.

  2. Oil update.

  3. Gold’s positioning flush.

  4. Tech rotations.

  5. Asset allocation thoughts.

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September FOMC.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 27, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-27https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-27Sun, 30 Aug 2026 14:32:54 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 27, 2026 - Lekker Insight
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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #30 - Aug 24, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-30-aug-24-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-30-aug-24-2026Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:54:47 GMTIf you haven’t yet listened to our recent Forward Guidance episode, I think it is worth the time because it really drives home the importance of the shift in markets we saw this week. At one point after we were talking about the intervention and fiat debasement for ~30 minutes, I think I said something to the tune of “even though we’ve been nonstop on this topic, I still don’t think we’re doing it justice as to the magnitude of the event”. I still believe that to be the case and an extremely important factor in markets for months and years to come.

Additionally, I want to say thank you to all of our new subscribers who joined the community this week - we appreciate your support. Our latest thought piece was seemingly well received and saw strong traction. It will be interesting to see what that means for the trade over the coming weeks and months.

Lastly, as many of you know our weekly Scouting the Tape report is typically published later in the week or over the weekend. It’s our goal to write 40+ of them over the course of a year (in addition to our thought pieces and other deliverables), allowing for a few weeks off given sometimes there just is less to say and I want this to be a quality over quantity publication. This past weekend was supposed to be one of those but given everything going on, I felt compelled to write. Given the usual late summer slow-down, I’m not yet sure what my writing schedule will look like but I will be back in the usual cadence in after Labor Day and continue to post relevant updates in the chat as appropriate. I hope everyone is able to get some time away from the screens over these coming two weeks before what is sure to be an eventful autumn season.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Increasing Treasury intervention.

  2. The week that guaranteed the next bout of inflation.

  3. Outlook for the bond market.

  4. Don’t lose sight of the big picture in equities.

  5. Oil update.

  6. Metals update.

  7. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Increasing Treasury intervention.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 20, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-20https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-20Sun, 23 Aug 2026 10:06:08 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 20, 2026 - Lekker Insight
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]]><![CDATA[Hiding in Plain Sight]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/hiding-in-plain-sighthttps://www.lekkercapital.com/p/hiding-in-plain-sightTue, 18 Aug 2026 15:04:16 GMTIn lieu of this week’s Scouting the Tape, we wanted to provide a more detailed piece on an important opportunity. This write up is a deep-dive on an area we would probably categorize as the most attractive long setup across all markets today. This piece runs through the following.

  1. Summary

  2. Key investment highlights

  3. Preferred expressions

  4. Risks

Summary

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #29 - Aug 15, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-29-aug-15-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-29-aug-15-2026Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:39:23 GMTI hope everyone is having a nice summer and has some time off planned between now and Labor Day. It’s a bit of a weird schedule this year with Labor Day falling on the last possible day (September 7th). Next week is light on the data and then we get Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech to end the month the following week. These low volatility and low trading volume periods are perfect for recharging the batteries. They are a time to refine and strengthen long-term views and less so on the trading front.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Economic update.

  2. FX update.

  3. PGM idea.

  4. Equity idea.

  5. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Economic update.

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]]><![CDATA[Scouting the Tape #28 - Aug 9, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-28-aug-9-2026https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/scouting-the-tape-28-aug-9-2026Sun, 09 Aug 2026 08:53:52 GMTThe not so quiet, quiet summer continues as the VIX closed the week with a 14 handle and the S&P 500 saw new closing highs. Enjoy these last few weeks of calm ahead of the fall while they last.

This week’s issue covers:

  1. Money printing and debasement.

  2. Peak Growth.

  3. Bitcoin.

  4. US Dollar.

  5. Asset allocation thoughts.

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Money printing and debasement.

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]]><![CDATA[Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 7, 2026]]>https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-7https://www.lekkercapital.com/p/forward-guidance-chartbook-aug-7Sun, 09 Aug 2026 08:17:54 GMT
Forward Guidance Chartbook - Aug 7, 2026 - Lekker Insight
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