Scouting the Tape #24 - July 11, 2026

(Unique) macro idea generation and (insightful) market thoughts.

We didn’t record a Forward Guidance episode this week due to some scheduling challenges but should be back next week. While this week was a bit slow on the data front, things start to pick back up in the coming weeks with inflation data and Warsh’s testimony next before the end of month FOMC and BOJ meetings. Given the underlying liquidity conditions, I would continue to expect a choppy environment.

This week’s issue covers:

1. The inflation forecast that will guide the Fed.

2. The state of the labor market.

3. FOMC minutes recap.

4. Warsh’s task forces.

5. Dissecting the Nasdaq.

6. Asset allocation thoughts.

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The inflation forecast that will guide the Fed.

1. I laid out my detailed views on go forward inflation in our recent Peak Hawkishness post.