This was one of those weeks where every day I woke up, it felt like something pivotal changed and whatever I wrote the day before needed a complete makeover. What a whirlwind. These events create both opportunities and traps in markets. The volatility and rapid inflows of new information require significant updating of mental frameworks and biases that if you’re caught on the wrong side of can be painful and costly. From my experience, the worst thing you can do here is dig your heels in and put your stubborn hat on. That is not to say throw out all of your conviction, theses and ideas, but it is saying keep your strong opinions loosely held and be humble as to where your blindspots and biases might lie. If you exit a position to clear the mind, you can always get right back in if need be.
We hosted a market update call this week. If you missed it, check out the replay here.
We also recorded a Forward Guidance episode on Thursday afternoon with the great Tony Greer.
Tony is a good friend of mine and fantastic market practitioner. Below I’ve included details for his annual February conference in Nashville. His inaugural event last year was productive, educational and fun - one of the best conferences I’ve been to - so I can’t recommend it enough. Sign up, get your tickets and I’ll see you there.
TG Macro Conference II
On February 18–19, 2027, TG Macro community is coming together at Virgin Hotels Nashville for two days of macro insights, market debate, and conversations with some of the sharpest minds in the business. An even bigger lineup than last year with returning speakers and 11 total guests.
If you’ve been meaning to register, don’t leave it until the last minute. You can follow the markets from anywhere. But you can’t replicate the experience of being there. This is your chance to step away from the screen, connect with fellow market participants, challenge ideas, and be part of the conversations shaping how we think about markets.
Don’t just follow the conversation. Be in the room.
Book your tickets today @ https://tgmacro.com/conference
We look forward to seeing you in Nashville.
This week’s issue covers:
Midterms reaction.
What’s next?
Geopolitical convergence.
2018 midterms.
Asset allocation thoughts.
