Scouting the Tape - June 19, 2026

(Unique) macro idea generation and (insightful) market thoughts.

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Despite how bad of a deal Trump took from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, I think everyone is experiencing a collective sigh of relief that the charade is over (until after midterms). There also happens to be a lot going on in this market outside of that so it’s helpful to remove a big distraction / idiosyncratic noise. Let’s jump in.

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FOMC thoughts.

1. So much about this Fed meeting were weird to me. For starters, the timing of the hawkish pivot - why do it now after inflation has peaked? This is another example of them viewing things through a rearview mirror. Warsh is actually correct to question the data they are using because any half decent forecasts would have made them well aware of the inflation spike that was coming back in their March and April meetings and in the same vein, would make them aware at this meeting that inflation is heading back down.