The Case for Peak Hawkishness
A breakdown of the thesis and trade structure to express the view
Over the last few months I have written a lot about rates and SOFR in the weekly Scouting the Tape reports and spoken about the changes coming to the Fed on our Forward Guidance podcasts. I figured it might help to aggregate the main ideas here to make it more easily digestible and summarize the trade thesis. It’s one thing to have a view, it’s another to be right and it’s even more challenging to make money. The first two are nice, but we’re here to do the latter.
This article dives into:
Summary and trade expression
Iran war impacts and inflation
What the Fed should do
General economic outlook
Market and technical factors
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Summary and trade expression
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