We have a number of big picture thought piece ideas in the works and have found a common thread that links many of them together - secular inflation. Whether the topic is the current fiscal trajectory, bond market instability, labor market, housing cycle or the price of oil, many of the obstacles facing the American economy have to do with supply-side capacity at the moment political systems globally have committed to running demand hot. Inflation is more of a structural phenomenon than cyclical. The forces producing it operate over years, not quarters or months, and are already largely locked in.
The initial organizational structure and expected thought pieces are below.
The Secular Inflation Series: Immigration and Labor Force
The Secular Inflation Series: Hard Asset Protection
The Secular Inflation Series: Housing Market
Our recent long-form piece on oil, Hiding in Plain Sight, published in August could be included in this series as well. It is a commodity expression of the same thesis where constrained supply meets policy-supported demand.
Each of these reports will include analysis and predictions around the overarching themes that will be with us for years. They will all also include the application of those macro views into investable ideas, because what’s the point in being right about financial market speculation if you aren’t making money off it.
This report covers:
Summary.
Immigration.
Demographics.
Labor Force.
Wages.
Investable idea.