One note on STRC - a 5-7% MSTR dilution rate to cover dividends today is not a 5-7% dilution rate forever. The dividends are fixed in dollar terms, so if the BTC price doubles and mNAV stays at similar levels, the dilution needed to service the dividends is cut in half. If you think BTC 3-10x's over the next 5-10 years, today's dividends are almost immaterial by then.
Ofc, they'll be issuing STRC all along the way, so the debt service need will rise as well, but that's a lever they control, and can cut if needed.
Concerning Hype revenues. Don't forget they dropped fees by 90% to bootstrap RWA trading (HIP-3 markets only). This won't last forever and revenues will rise again when this comes off.
One note on STRC - a 5-7% MSTR dilution rate to cover dividends today is not a 5-7% dilution rate forever. The dividends are fixed in dollar terms, so if the BTC price doubles and mNAV stays at similar levels, the dilution needed to service the dividends is cut in half. If you think BTC 3-10x's over the next 5-10 years, today's dividends are almost immaterial by then.
Ofc, they'll be issuing STRC all along the way, so the debt service need will rise as well, but that's a lever they control, and can cut if needed.
Great article - what’s your take on SOXX short? I’m in SOXS but feels early
Concerning Hype revenues. Don't forget they dropped fees by 90% to bootstrap RWA trading (HIP-3 markets only). This won't last forever and revenues will rise again when this comes off.