excellent! this also echoes some of what you're looking at, Quinn
obviously gold isn't going for flip Treasuries or global long bonds (tho it has as a reserve asset for CBs..), but it's just *another reason* term premia can go much higher. with energy breaking out, breakevens have risen sharply already YTD.
2.45-2.50 seems to be the the top / ceiling on T10YIE since early 2023, so a break above that would be very meaningful. it's really just been consolidating 2.15-2.45 for 3 years.
meanwhile, dollar, credit spreads, vix and vvix are all rising in tandem - a pretty bad backdrop for risk given the moves we've seen in recent days. stocks are probs 3-4% offside with spreads if you look at the historical relationship since 2022. could be an interesting week..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhPbsfNKai8
excellent! this also echoes some of what you're looking at, Quinn
obviously gold isn't going for flip Treasuries or global long bonds (tho it has as a reserve asset for CBs..), but it's just *another reason* term premia can go much higher. with energy breaking out, breakevens have risen sharply already YTD.
2.45-2.50 seems to be the the top / ceiling on T10YIE since early 2023, so a break above that would be very meaningful. it's really just been consolidating 2.15-2.45 for 3 years.
meanwhile, dollar, credit spreads, vix and vvix are all rising in tandem - a pretty bad backdrop for risk given the moves we've seen in recent days. stocks are probs 3-4% offside with spreads if you look at the historical relationship since 2022. could be an interesting week..
Great picture painting, thanks!
My goat
Great stuff.
good shit